Australian Reform Society
PO Box 64
Mandurang 3551

Secretary:  email 

"Accountable Representation for the People"
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AUSTRALIAN REFORM SOCIETY NEWSLETTER

Australian Reform Society In. ON A00546153X

ARP PO Box 64 Mandurang Vic 3551

 

 

Please note that the articles printed on this web site are not necessarily the official views of the society.

 

 

 Also see News and Opinions and Committee Notes

(Left hand Column).

 

DUTSON DOWNS and Toxic dump debate

The following letter recently appeared in the Gippsland Times.  The letter was also sent to The Age and The Herald Sun who, as yet, not publish the same letter.

 An open letter to the Ministers for major projects and for Planning.

 Dear Ministers

 Whilst considering the proposal for a soil recycling facility (or stage 2 or 3 storage) at Dutson Downs, are you aware that water sampling within the proposed extension of the Gippsland Lakes Coastal Park and adjacent to the Dutson Downs facility has revealed significant levels of heavy metal contamination, specifically (as Mg per L): arsenic 0.91, Chromium 1.54, copper 0.36, nickel 0.23, lead 1.41, zinc 0.46 and mercury 0.0030.

Can we be assured that this is not leeching or seeping out of the existing Dutson Downs facility and if not from there, where is it coming from?  What action is being taken to rectify the present contamination prior to considering putting further pressure on this sensitive area?

Colin Drury 

President      

 Ph 03 9561 4208

 

 

PRESIDENT'S LETTER JAN '17

 

Dear Fellow Members,

 

Stan has passed the President's baton over to me and has stayed on as Vice-President.

 May I take this opportunity to thank both Stan and Steve Parker for the extraordinary amount of time, energy and personal anguish they went through to rescue the Party in the dark past. The fact that we are still here today is a tribute to them.

 

ABOUT ME: Born and raised, fishing and hunting, in a small (pop. 400) central Victorian town. 30 years a banker in Vic and the NT Top End, followed by 8 years running my own business. Now happily retired. Managed to land and release a black marlin off WA in September and can die happy.

 

 Citizens’ Rights.

       For citizens to reclaim the right to have a say in this country's future. The right of peaceful, honest, law-abiding citizens to go about their business and leisure, without some parasitic bureaucrat or politician telling them they can't do it. Those beuracrats don't own this country, we the people, do.

ABOUT THE FUTURE: Firstly, to all our members, from one side of the country to the other, who have stayed loyal and true, your committee thanks you

 We all lead busy lives and have our own priorities, but I think if each of us could just convince one more person that what we are on about is in their own best interests, we can start to make a difference. It's called People Power. I urge each of you to help spread the word. Sign up new members if you can. It is $20 ($10 concession) annual membership fee.

 

 Let's make a difference.

 

MAN MADE CLIMATE CHANGE- THE GREAT HOAX                                                                 The following has been written by Col Drury as at Jan 2011, in the public interest, for the ARP. The views expressed are those of the writer & not necessarily those of the Party. All datum collated is readily available on the net & whilst the writer is incapable of verifying all details, most would appear irrefutable. Sit back & get comfy, this may take a while.

CAUSE & EFFECT:

 in every cause & effect there is a lag time. In climate change the lag time may be from months to 1000’s (K’s) of years.                                                                                       

CLIMATE v WEATHER:

Do not confuse the two. Weather, if you like, is sub-text of climate. The Earth has 3 CLIMATE zones : tropical, temperate & arctic. The Northern hemisphere WEATHER is strongly influenced by the Gulf Stream current & Australia’s WEATHER by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is measured by air pressure differences in the Pacific Ocean between Tahiti & Darwin. If the mathematical formula results in a strong plus factor over a 2 month  period, we are entering a La Nina event. Should it go negative over 2 months, we are entering El Nino. To localise for Victoria: La Nina= above average rainfall. El Nino= below average rainfall. n.b.12/2010 SOI was the highest plus ever recorded (from 1876) (approx +27.1). result: we’ve had a bit of rain recently.                                  

OCEAN DYNAMICS:

This deals with the “great ocean conveyor” that transports heat around the world through ocean current. This system determines weather stability & transition. Slight changes in salinity or temperature can result in a slow-down of the ocean conveyor, causing rapid weather changes. The Northern Hemisphere is much more susceptible to global temperature changes that the Southern, as the North Pole sea-ice is much thinner & much less extensive than the South Pole continental ice. i.e .it melts quicker, thereby precipitating shifts or shut-downs in thermohaline circulation  e.g. the gulf stream.                                                                 

SUN SPOT ACTIVITY:

 If the sun don’t shine there ain’t no climate. Sun spot activity usually waxes & wanes with an approx. 11 year cycle, however there can be exceptions to this. Three recent variations to the cycle were:  1 SPORER MINIMUM 1460-1550. 2 MAUNDER MINIMUM 1645-1715 which corresponds closely to one of the coldest periods of the so called “little Ice Age” , although there is no definitive start & end to same , there was a very cold period between 1560 & 1850.          3  DALTON MINIMUM 1790-1830  Ask Napoleon’s army what 1812 felt like in Russia.                  There is an even better correlation with the LENGTH of the solar cycle, between   years of       the highest number of sun spots. e.g. the temp anomaly was -0.4 Kelvin in 1890 when the cycle was 11.7 years, but +0,25 Kelvin in 1989 when the cycle was 9.8 years.                                                     We could, in fact, be heading for another little ice age over the next 300-500 years. While it may take several years of low sun spot activity before the temps. decline, if sunspot cycles (SC’s) #24 & #25 have low peaks, the coming decades could be on the cool side. SC#23 ended in 2009 & had a fairly high high of around 120, but as it declined, it was below 50 from 2004 so we have been in the sunspot range of cooling for 6 years already.                                                                                  An increase in sunspots = an increase in solar winds (irradiance) which is an outflow of ionised particles. Not only does the increased brightness of the sun warm the earth but also the solar wind shields us from cosmic rays.                                                                                                                                     

GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS (GCR’s):

The entire Solar System is covered by the Heliosphere (the sun’s magnetic field). Low solar activity weakens the field. Henrik Svensmark et.al. of the Danish National Space Centre have been studying the effects of GCR’s. These are high energy interstellar particles, which, when they slam into the atmosphere, break apart air molecules into ions & electrons, which causes water & sulphuric acid in the air to stick together in tiny droplets. These droplets are seeds which can grow into clouds & clouds reflect sunlight, thus lowering temperatures. The sun influences how many GCR’s impinge on the atmosphere & thus the number of clouds . When the sun is frenetic, the solar wind of charged particles it spews out increases. That expands the cocoon of magnetic fields around the solar system, deflecting some of the GCR’s. Alternately, less solar activity, more GCR’s, more cloud, cooler temperatures. They have also found that GCR levels, reflected in various isotopes, correlates well with climate extending back thousands of years.                                                                                                                        VOLCANOES: Volcanic eruptions increase (decrease) around the times of solar minimums (maximums) (review period 1500-1980). Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth’s spin. The resultant jolt (likened to a spinning top about to fall over) probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magna chambers. Less solar activity = larger volcanic eruptions. The eruption of Huaynaputina in Peru caused 1601 to be the coldest year in the Northern Hemisphere for 600 years. Between  5-15/4/1815 Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted & led to what was known as “the year without Summer” in 1816. There were food riots in England & 100’s of 1000’s of people starved throughout the Northern Hemisphere. There were also 4 other major volcanic eruptions between 1812 & 1814. On 27/8/1883, Krakatoa between Java & Sumatra, erupted, sending out enough Sulphur Dioxide to drop the Earth’s temperature by several degrees for a few years.                                                                       THE MILANKOVITCH THEORY:

 In 1939, Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovitch published a theory (since refuted by some & enhanced by others) that climate change is caused by changes in 3 elements of the Earth-Sun geometry. This theory points to the coming & going of Ice Ages caused by the Earth’s “orbital Eccentricity”, “obliquity” & “Procession” of Earth’s movements. The much studied theory details a 100kyr (100,000 year) climate cycle (Eccentricity) being the shape of the orbit around the Sun. A 41kyr cycle (obliquity) being the angle the Earth’s axis makes with the plane of the Earth’s orbit & a 23kyr cycle (procession) being the change in the direction of the Earth’s rotation. (A 5.5myr record from deep sea cores also appears to indicate a 400kyr cycle).                                                                                                                   ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GASES:                                                                           SOURCES: Water vapour (not droplets) 95.00%, Ocean biologic activity, volcanoes, decaying plants, animal activity etc, 4.72%, human additions 0.28%, of which man made co2 represents only 0.117%. Why didn’t the IPCC report to the UN even mention water vapour? Couldn’t anyone tax it? The current methane level is about 230% of its pre-industrial maximum while co2 is at about 130% of its maximum.                                                                                         CO2 LEVELS: Accurate recordings only commenced in 1958 with satellites. Previous history is predominantly from core samples. Co2 levels for Oct.2010 were 387.18ppm (parts per million). Co2 is less than 4/100th of 1% of all gases present in the Earth’s atmosphere. Each year 186 billion tons (bt’s) of co2 enters the Earth’s atmosphere, of that,  only 6bt’s are from human activity (3.2%), some 90bt”s comes from biologic activity in the Earth’s oceans (cold water is capable of retaining more co2 than warm water) & the rest from such sources as volcanoes & decaying land plants. Where does Co2  go?  47% atmospheric, 27% land & 26% ocean.                                                        

CO2 LEVEL HISTORY:

 The Vostok Ice Core Sample, a joint initiative of Russia, USA & France at Russia’s Vostok Antarctic base, drilled a core sample of ice to a depth equivalent to 420kyrs. A graph of atmospheric temperatures and Co2 levels over this period show levels rising & falling with an identical patter, this, say “the experts” & doom sayers is proof that Co2 levels dictate climate change. Not Quite. A more detailed analysis of the graph actually shows that Co2 levels lag temperature changes by approx. 800 years +/- 200 years (Caillon et.al. 2003). i.e.temperature dictates Co2 not visa versa. (see cold water/warm water above).If both factors caused each other to rise significantly, positive feedback would become expotential. We’d see a runaway greenhouse effect. It hasn’t happened. Some other factor is more important than Co2, or, its role is minor.       (It is interesting to note that core peaks in temp & Co2 levels occurred at approx. 410kyr, 322kyr, 238kyr, 130kyr & 10-0kyr. How’s that for an “ eccentricity” cycle?)                                                   It is true that present Co2 levels are higher than any recorded in the Vostok core, but let’s go back a bit further: In fact, for the past 600 million years (myrs) only in the carboniferous period (about 360-280myr ago) & into the Permian period up to 275myr ago, have Co2 levels been as low as they are now. The late Ordovician period 450myr to 435myr was actually an ice age, while Co2 levels were at about 4400ppm. How Come? Remember the Jurassic Period? It commenced about 200myr ago & had Co2 levels at about 1800ppm. T-Rex was  suckin it in & lovin it .How would Al Gore, Tim Flannery et.al. have made a quid in those days?                                                                                                                                                 CONCLUSIONS:                                                                                                           1. Any attempt by Govts. To impose a carbon tax or carbon trading is nothing but a tax grab without foundation.                                                                                                            2. The whole issue of Co2 emissions causing man made climate change is a HOAX.                 3. My brain hurts.........                                     

 

 

 

Regards,         COL DRURY

 

President      Ph 03 9561 4208

 

The venue for the meeting is The Brewery Tap Hotel Warrenheip, Ballarat (3rd Sunday 11.00am, Feb, May. Aug/agm and Nov). Everyone is welcome to attend.

 

 

 

 

 

Authorised by I Dean Nankervis rd. Mandurang.